The Spring Price Starts its Upswing
Almost six weeks have passed since the Spring halving took place at the beginning of June, and there are signs that the reduced supply of Spring is already affecting the price. Before the halving, the price of Spring relative to the average price of all four tokens was mostly below 0.85, but Spring has stayed above this level for nearly all of July so far. An uptick in the price is clearly visible in the chart.
For the nine months before the start of June, Spring tokens were produced at a rate of 168 tokens every ten minutes. Since the halving, only 84 tokens have been mined every ten minutes on average. Spring was previously produced at the fastest rate of the four tokens, and is now produced at the slowest rate.
Although Spring is still the most plentiful token, it’s becoming scarcer over time in comparison to the other tokens. Summer, which is now produced at the fastest rate of the four, will overtake Spring and become the most plentiful token in the next nine months.
The tokens have been designed so that their prices will oscillate around each other slowly, over the course of years. This allows investors to gain more tokens over time by trading the more expensive tokens for the cheaper ones, which will become the most expensive later on, allowing the investors to trade again.
Over the next nine months, there will be two major forces pushing up the price of Spring in comparison to the other tokens. It will be produced at the slowest rate of the four, and investors will exchange other tokens for Spring to increase the total number of tokens they own. By following the rule: Always trade tokens for more tokens of a different type, an investor can guarantee that the total number of tokens in their investment will go up with every trade and will never go down.
These forces have already begun to act, and the resulting pressure is starting to become visible in the price chart. The months and years ahead will give investors the opportunity to watch the prices and see how the market evolves. The theoretical price chart shows an idealized, smooth market response to the changes in the rates of production of the tokens. Real prices are volatile, and it’s not always clear whether an uptick in the historical price chart is a fluctuation or the beginning of a trend.
In this case, however, we have an understanding of the basic market forces at work, and we can expect an uptrend in the price of Spring to develop and continue over the next nine months. Investors who hold Summer, Autumn and Winter tokens will have a limited window of time during which they can trade their tokens for Spring and gain more tokens in total. Spring has traded above Summer for much of the last two weeks, which possibly indicates that the remaining opportunities to trade Summer for Spring are running out.
