Seasonal Tokens Weekly Price Analysis

By Heater

The prices of all four tokens rose over the course of week, starting with a tight convergence in which the prices were constrained to a narrow band between 1 cent and 1.2 cents for most of Monday. That pattern broke on Wednesday when Spring fell to 0.9 cents, just as Summer began a slow rally that led all four token prices higher over the rest of the week.

In the aftermath of the halving, both cyclical trading and new buying supported the price of Spring, which traded above both Summer and Autumn early in the week, frequently crossing above and below those levels until buying of all four tokens in the second half of the week pushed the prices back towards their natural ratio. The price of Autumn briefly rose above Winter on Thursday as it separated from Spring and Summer, remaining just below Winter for all of Friday and Saturday.

Spring recorded the most modest gains of the four, rising from 0.98 cents to 1.11 cents from last Saturday, while Summer rose more dramatically from 1.08 to 1.47 cents over the same time period. Autumn and Winter also saw solid gains, with Autumn rising .37 cents to a high of 1.57 cents, and Winter rising from 1.29 to also end the week at a high of 1.75 cents.

Nearly a month after the Spring halving, the prices appear to be returning to their natural equilibrium, with the Winter/Spring spread increasing from 20% to 60% over the course of the week, and Summer and Autumn breaking away from Spring. The rate of production of Spring tokens is half of what it was, and the accumulating scarcity of Spring in comparison to the other tokens can be expected to result in upwards pressure that should become clearly visible in the weeks and months ahead.