Seasonal Tokens Weekly Price Analysis
By Heater
The prices of the tokens have mostly risen over the course of July, with Winter, Autumn and Spring ending the month significantly higher, and Summer falling behind the others to end the month as the cheapest of the four. Winter has remained the most expensive token for the entire month, reaching a high of 1.73 cents, with Summer dropping as low as 0.85 cents.
Spring started the month closely tracking the price of Summer, reaching a low of 0.87 cents at the same time as Summer found support at its lowest price. Since then, Spring has risen dramatically, separating from Summer and more closely following the trajectory of Autumn. On the 18th and 19th, Spring rose significantly above Autumn, briefly touching 1.53 cents before falling back and bouncing off support at 1.1 cents, and then tracking the Autumn price as the month came to a close.
With two months having passed since the rate of production of Spring was halved, the effect on the price of Spring relative to the other tokens has become clear. The lower supply has brought Spring from the cheapest of the four tokens to the second- or third-most expensive, competing with Autumn for second place. Winter’s price relative to the others hasn’t been affected, while the rise of Spring has coincided with a correspondingly dramatic fall in the price of Summer.
At the end of the month, Spring and Autumn were tied at 1.23 cents, while Winter maintained its first-place position, closing the month at 1.44 cents, and Summer falling back to its support level at 0.91 cents.
The question of how long it would take the Spring price to respond to the halving has now been partially answered. Two months have been enough to decisively change the order of the prices, and it appears unlikely that Spring will fall below Summer any time soon. Meanwhile, we have yet to learn how long it will take for Spring to rise above Winter. With Spring still being the most plentiful token, and Winter being the scarcest, it may take a long time. On the other hand, after Spring lost its stable position as the cheapest of the four tokens, it has tended to track the prices of other tokens, first Summer and now Autumn.
It may be the case that Spring will overcome Autumn as the reduced supply pushes it higher over time, and then the competition between Spring and Winter will begin in earnest. The upcoming weeks and months will reveal whether this is a fast or slow process as we watch the changing prices unfold.
